This is the desk letter: what $BTC did, what our feeds said, and the opinion we derive from them. Skim Key takeaway first; dig into sections below when you want the evidence.
Reading this for the first time?
We read markets in three layers, top to bottom:
- Macro — slow permission (rates, dollar, flows, vol): should the system take risk?
- Structure — options positioning and perpetuals stress: is the tactical backdrop clean?
- Execution — closed hourly bars and live book state: did all layers agree on a trade?
Scores are confidence-style percentages (0–100%), not price targets. Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
Key takeaway
- Lean: Defensive · Path: Gradual downside
- Driver this week: Weak macro confidence — Macro confidence 30% keeps the bar high — permission may be on, but edge is thin.
- What would change the view: Macro clearing 65%+ with structure gates open would justify more active engagement.
Learn this week: Gamma pin
A gamma pin is a strike where listed options open interest clusters near spot. Pin near $70,000 this week. Dealers hedging around that strike often absorb moves — price can stick or chop into expiry rather than trend cleanly. We use pins as range clues, not guaranteed floors or ceilings.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $64,649 (+1.0% vs $63,982). Weekly range $61,821–$65,577.
Model portfolio finished the week -1.50% down on allocated capital (0W/2L across 2 trades).
2 round trip(s) closed this week (model portfolio shadow-live log).
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
Macro Analysis
Permission read
Long and short entries allowed on the daily/weekly horizon (orderly decline, calm vol).
Macro confidence score — 30%
This is a composite confidence score (0–100%) blending rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, realised/implied vol, skew, credit spreads, equity correlation, stablecoin deployment, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. 70%+ keeps long permission constructive; 80%+ removes the vol size cut; below 50% we tighten aggressively. Current read: weak — stay selective.
Cycle timing
27 months past the halving · -48.2% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.35% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.41% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 120.5 · M2 money supply +1.61% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Spot ETF flows
Last five sessions: positive $76 million · Prior five: positive $197 million. This is our cleanest read on incremental institutional bid — flows do not predict every candle, but they tell us whether the marginal buyer is showing up.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (32.5%) vs implied vol (36.0%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.14) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 28 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a orderly decline macro label.
Market Structure
Near-spot positioning:
Dealer gamma (plain English): When positioning clusters with pin near $70,000, market makers hedge by buying dips and selling rips — that can pin or chop price into expiry rather than let trends run free. We use these levels as range clues, not guaranteed support/resistance.
These are near-spot strike concentrations from listed options — useful for range vs breakout, not a precision dealer gamma chart.
Gates: Options gate: open · Perpetuals gate: open (NEUTRAL). Perpetuals: perps funding orderly.
What We're Hunting
Bias: Defensive · Path: Gradual downside
Long: closed hourly bar above structure, macro permission on, options/perps gates green, vol-adjusted size only. Short: mirror logic on breakdown closes when macro permits shorts. In Orderly Bear Market conditions, short-biased structure setups receive extra evaluation when the decline is gradual rather than chaotic.
Charts: Uptrend weekly (support $60,000) · Range daily $61,821–$65,577 · entries need a closed 1H bar (why?).
Week Ahead
Final Take
Our opinion
Lean: Defensive · Base case path: Gradual downside
Macro confidence 30% sits in the wait-and-verify bucket: soft risk, calm volatility. Options positioning stress at the 8% level (vs recent history) — That is a market where the system stays patient until a closed bar confirms direction.
Price now: $64,649 (+1.0% on the week). Macro confidence: 30%. Positioning stress: 8%. Permission: Long and short entries allowed.
What that means in practice
We expect fragile rallies and lower highs — longs only on exceptional structure; capital preservation dominates.
We are 27 months past the halving — historically a window where $BTC can trend but drawdowns still arrive without warning; the system sizes for that asymmetry.
Last week the model closed 2 round trip(s) when overlap appeared; we are flat again.
Sign-off
That is the full picture: defensive, gradual downside, rules unchanged. We ingest this stack every hour so live accounts never trade on narrative alone.
Next issue: Sunday 26 July 2026, 08:00 UTC.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.