Bitcoin does not only move in bull phases and crashes. Often price drifts lower in a gradual, orderly decline — what we call an Orderly Bear Market on the Performance page.
Until now, our published rolling replay showed very little activity in that phase. Live accounts were already adapting to macro conditions, but public performance artifacts and user messaging still reflected the older “stay flat” posture.
What changed
When the macro filter labels conditions as an Orderly Bear Market, the system now:
- Blocks new long entries — the same capital-protection rule as before.
- Evaluates short-biased setups that match a gradual downtrend when structure and gates align.
- Stays defensive in disorderly or veto conditions — no change to hard safety blocks.
This is one unified strategy. There are no toggles, lanes, or separate products to configure.
What you should expect
| Market phase | Typical activity |
|---|---|
| Bull Phase | Selective long and short opportunities when setups qualify |
| Orderly Bear Market | More short-biased evaluations when the tape declines gradually; still selective, not constant trading |
| Balanced · Range Bound | Primary harvest window in calm conditions |
| Volatile Chop City | Entries blocked or heavily reduced — capital protected |
Activity bands are guidance, not promises. The system only trades when closed-bar evidence and risk gates agree.
Performance page
Rolling Shadow Replay on the Performance page has been republished to include Orderly Bear Market activity in the historical simulation. Trade counts and returns may differ from the previous published snapshot — that reflects the improved regime handling, not a bug.
The regime performance row now shows four plain-English labels, including Orderly Bear Market.
Why this matters
Quiet weeks during gradual declines are not always “broken.” They can mean the system refused low-edge longs — which is correct. The update adds appropriate short-side engagement in that specific phase so capital can work when the environment supports it, while still sitting out when conditions are too messy to trade.
Questions?
Open the in-app chat or email support. We are happy to walk through your account’s current market phase and what to expect next.
System state only. Not financial advice. Past simulated results are not guarantees of future performance.