Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our proprietary system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — options and perpetual OI data analysis: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — bespoke lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did all layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $64,784 (+2.6% vs $63,165). Weekly range $62,270–$65,356.
No round trips closed — the model portfolio had no completed trades in this window.
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
13 signal(s) appeared in the pipeline; 1 blocked (Options structure filters are blocking new entries.).
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — The Left Curve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 28 months since the halving
- 48.0% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (48.0% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: mildly constructive. Long and short entries allowed. The regime state is classified as orderly decline with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our proprietary composite z-score is +0.17.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: mildly constructive. Long and short entries allowed (orderly decline, calm vol).
Cycle timing
28 months past the halving · -48.0% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.43% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.44% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 119.7 · M2 money supply +1.56% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Spot ETF flows
Last five sessions: positive $854 million · Prior five: negative $62 million. This is our cleanest read on incremental institutional bid — flows do not predict every candle, but they tell us whether the marginal buyer is showing up.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (27.7%) vs implied vol (34.5%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.53) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 31 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a orderly decline macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Defensive · Expectation: Chop / range
- Driver this week: ETF flow impulse — Spot ETF inflows over the last five sessions are moving the marginal bid.
- Exposure / entry change if: Flows flattening or reversing would shift whether macro permission stays constructive.
Market Structure and Data
Near-spot positioning:
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Perpetuals funding
Perpetuals funding is the recurring fee longs pay shorts (or vice versa) on leveraged BTC contracts. Funding is 0.0005% per 8h. Persistently positive funding means longs are crowded — fragile if momentum fades.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.