Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — perpetual futures positioning: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did the live layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $63,040 (−2.7% vs $64,789). Weekly range $62,523–$65,475.
No round trips closed — the model portfolio had no completed trades in this window.
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
25 signal(s) appeared in the pipeline.
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — The Left Curve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 28 months since the halving
- 49.5% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (49.5% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: mildly constructive. Long and short entries allowed. The regime state is classified as orderly decline with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our composite macro read is +0.30.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: mildly constructive. Long and short entries allowed (orderly decline, calm vol).
Cycle timing
28 months past the halving · -49.5% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.39% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.48% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 119.1 · M2 money supply +1.56% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Spot ETF flows
Last five sessions: negative $390 million · Prior five: positive $854 million. This is our cleanest read on incremental institutional bid — flows do not predict every candle, but they tell us whether the marginal buyer is showing up.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (21.8%) vs implied vol (35.3%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.48) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 34 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a orderly decline macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Defensive · Expectation: Chop / range
- Driver this week: ETF flow impulse — Spot ETF outflows over the last five sessions are moving the marginal bid.
- Exposure / entry change if: Flows flattening or reversing would shift whether macro permission stays constructive.
Market Structure and Data
Near-spot positioning:
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Yield curve (2s10s)
The 2s10s spread is 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield. Spread is 0.48% (negative = inverted). When it inverts, short rates exceed long rates — tighter financial conditions that usually press duration assets like $BTC.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.