Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — perpetual futures positioning: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did the live layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $78,096 (+2.0% vs $76,541). Weekly range $76,525–$81,483.
Model portfolio finished the week +2.77% up on allocated capital (3W/0L across 3 trades). 2-week winning run. Last 30 days: +7.28% on allocated capital.
3 round trip(s) closed this week (model portfolio shadow-live log).
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — The Left Curve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 28 months since the halving
- 37.3% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (37.3% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked. The regime state is classified as constructive risk-on with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our composite macro read is +0.63.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked (constructive risk-on, calm vol).
Cycle timing
28 months past the halving · -37.3% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.34% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.47% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 118.1 · M2 money supply +0.89% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Spot ETF flows
Last five sessions: positive $924 million · Prior five: positive $1.9 billion. This is our cleanest read on incremental institutional bid — flows do not predict every candle, but they tell us whether the marginal buyer is showing up.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (42.1%) vs implied vol (36.8%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.02) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 69 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a constructive risk-on macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Cautiously bullish · Expectation: Gradual upside
- Driver this week: ETF flow impulse — Spot ETF inflows over the last five sessions are moving the marginal bid.
- Exposure / entry change if: Flows flattening or reversing would shift whether macro permission stays constructive.
Market Structure and Data
Near-spot positioning:
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Spot ETF flows
Spot ETF flows track net buys/sells in US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. Last five sessions: +$924M. Cleanest read on whether the marginal institutional buyer is showing up.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.