Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — perpetual futures positioning: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did the live layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $84,722 (+5.5% vs $80,276). Weekly range $80,252–$87,471.
No round trips closed — the model portfolio had no completed trades in this window.
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — Cycle-timed Bitcoin sleeve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 29 months since the halving
- 32.3% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (32.3% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: constructive. Long and short entries allowed. The regime state is classified as constructive risk-on with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our composite macro read is +0.75.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: constructive. Long and short entries allowed (constructive risk-on, calm vol).
Cycle timing
29 months past the halving · -32.3% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.85% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.31% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 119.5 · M2 money supply +1.43% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Spot ETF flows
Last five sessions: positive $2.4 billion · Prior five: positive $6 million. This is our cleanest read on incremental institutional bid — flows do not predict every candle, but they tell us whether the marginal buyer is showing up.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (41.3%) vs implied vol (34.9%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.72) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 70 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a constructive risk-on macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Neutral · Expectation: Chop / range
- Driver this week: Elevated positioning stress — Options stress at 91% is the loudest day-to-day signal — range risk caps aggression even with Macro read +0.75 (constructive).
- Exposure / entry change if: Stress falling below ~45% or a daily close outside the positioning band would reopen breakout mode.
Market Structure and Data
Near-spot positioning:
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Orderly bear
An orderly bear means the macro layer still allows shorts (and often both sides) under calm volatility — decline without emergency stop. It is not a call to force trades; it describes the permission state the live book is trading under.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.