Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — perpetual futures positioning: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did the live layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $82,984 (−2.5% vs $85,090). Weekly range $80,351–$86,990.
Model portfolio finished the week -0.48% down on allocated capital (1W/1L across 2 trades).
2 round trip(s) closed this week (model portfolio shadow-live log).
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — Cycle-timed Bitcoin sleeve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 30 months since the halving
- 33.4% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (33.4% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked. The regime state is classified as constructive risk-on with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our composite macro read is +0.70.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked (constructive risk-on, calm vol).
Cycle timing
30 months past the halving · -33.4% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.87% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.47% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 121.4 · M2 money supply +0.99% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (38.0%) vs implied vol (37.0%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.66) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 61 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a constructive risk-on macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Cautiously bullish · Expectation: Gradual upside
- Driver this week: Constructive macro stack — Macro read +0.70 (constructive) is the main tailwind — slow inputs lean cautiously bullish.
- Exposure / entry change if: Macro turning soft or volatility jumping to stressed would tighten permission and size.
Market Structure and Data
Near-spot positioning:
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Gamma pin
A gamma pin is a strike where listed options open interest clusters near spot. Pin near $90,000 this week. Dealers hedging around that strike often absorb moves — price can stick or chop into expiry rather than trend cleanly. We use pins as range clues, not guaranteed floors or ceilings.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.