Each Sunday we publish how we view the market, how we are positioned, and what we expect.
Reading this for the first time?
Our system reads markets from three layers:
- Macro — higher time frame analysis (Interest rates, DXY, money flow, volatility): should we take risk?
- Bitcoin Specific — perpetual futures positioning: what is the day-to-day market backdrop saying?
- Execution — lower timeframe signals and the live book state: did the live layers agree on a trade?
Deeper context: How it works · Performance · FAQ.
This Week's Activity
$BTC closed $81,634 (−1.6% vs $82,990). Weekly range $79,732–$84,315.
Model portfolio finished the week -1.58% down on allocated capital (0W/2L across 2 trades).
2 round trip(s) closed this week (model portfolio shadow-live log).
Live book: flat as of Sunday 08:00 UTC.
Detailed Breakdown
Buy and Hold — Cycle-timed Bitcoin sleeve
Hodling 0.0% Allocation in BTC.
Facts
- 30 months since the halving
- 34.5% below the cycle high
No buy window — cycle discount not deep enough yet (34.5% below cycle high; holding).
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked. The regime state is classified as constructive risk-on with calm vol.
Deeper Macro Analysis
Our composite macro read is +0.70.
This score is derived from analysis of rates, dollar, ETF flows, exchange supply, volatility, skew, credit, equity correlation, stablecoins, miner pressure, and halving-cycle age. Positive leans constructive; negative leans soft.
Current read: constructive. Long entries allowed · Shorts blocked (constructive risk-on, calm vol).
Cycle timing
30 months past the halving · -34.5% below the cycle high. We treat this as drawdown-awareness, not a timing call.
Rates and financial conditions
10-year real yield 2.78% · 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread 0.33% (inverted when negative — tighter financial conditions). Higher real yields and a flat/inverted curve typically press duration assets like $BTC even when spot looks calm.
Dollar and liquidity
US Dollar Index 121.6 · M2 money supply +0.99% over 28 days. A firm dollar and slowing M2 growth are headwinds for broad risk appetite.
Volatility, cross-asset link, sentiment
Realised vol (32.0%) vs implied vol (38.0%) shows whether options are pricing more or less fear than realised movement. BTC–Nasdaq correlation (0.73) near 1 means $BTC is trading like a tech beta; near 0 means idiosyncratic drivers dominate. Fear & Greed at 53 adds a behavioural check — extreme greed often coincides with fragile leverage. Together: calm vol inside a constructive risk-on macro label.
Day-to-day Trade Activity — The Right Curve
- View: Cautiously bullish · Expectation: Gradual upside
- Driver this week: Constructive macro stack — Macro read +0.70 (constructive) is the main tailwind — slow inputs lean cautiously bullish.
- Exposure / entry change if: Macro turning soft or volatility jumping to stressed would tighten permission and size.
Market Structure and Data
Live tactical permission does not use ETF options pressure. When a near-spot strike map is unavailable, the perps structure table below is the public read.
Near-spot BTC strike data was not reliable enough to quote a pin map this week. Live decisions do not use options-chain pressure.
Week Ahead
Learn something this week: Perpetuals funding
Perpetuals funding is the recurring fee longs pay shorts (or vice versa) on leveraged BTC contracts. Funding is -0.0005% per 8h. Persistently positive funding means longs are crowded — fragile if momentum fades.
— Right Curver
System state only. Not financial advice. Historical results at Performance — not guarantees.